在宣統三年秋，河南張德城外的懷尚村，一個中年人戴著草帽，坐在池塘旁垂釣。時而有魚跳出水面，打破水面的波紋。
「一道血腥的詔書結束了兩千年的帝國 - 並將王位賜予最狡猾的玩家。」是神州大地系列的一個單元。以下是該單元的 完整插畫本 進行記錄。您可以逐字逐句閱讀，或是開啟視頻頁面以追蹤圖像。
宣統三年秋，河南張德縣外的桓尚村，人們在池塘旁，坐著撈魚。有時候魚跳出水面，他抬起魚竿，動作似乎很悠哉。無論魚是否咬了鉤，似乎對他來說都不太重要。
在那一刻,Thousands 英里之外,武昌的枪声已经响起了。在北京的皇宫里,亲王载 فن步步如火,如同站在红炭上的一个人。
皇家軍隊無法打敗革命者。 而全國唯一能夠打敗他們的將領三年前就已經被朝廷自己的部下趕回這個湖泊。現在他們只好求他回來。
大家都認為袁世凱完蛋了。
但歷史喜愛的笑話中，最喜愛的一個是這一個：它讓一個男人從頂到底，然後把他拉回權力之巔，
並且用他的敵人的手把他拉起來。
再倒轉一次時間到1909年。該年太子太傅載芳拿下袁世凱的職務，趕他回家，借口袁世凱腳有病。 表面上它是一個病假。實際上它是將一個競爭對手移除，趙逢甲也有他的理由。光緒帝已經去世了，廣泛流傳說袁世凱在 1898 年出賣了改革派人士。太上皇想為他的兄弟報仇，並且也害怕袁世凱手中的北洋新軍。
一道詔令，袁把每個官職都交出，回到張德，建造了在歡尚村的養生園。從此以後他就打魚，作詩，招待客人，完全像退休的鄉紳。然而他的後院
從未缺少穿著官帽的客人。 無論誰統率著六個北洋軍的部隊，私下裡仍然叫他公巴。袁世凱的退休並非是步履橫行。它是把他的釣竿移到一個穩定的地方。 他看著那水，等待著不是魚而是帝國的遊戲走到他需要的廣場上。所以這裡是個問題。 當武昌起義時，為什麼朝廷第一個念頭不是派別人去，而是去敲袁世凱的門? 因為幾乎所有能真正打仗的將領都是出自於宰相班的培養，宰相班的士兵唯袁一人效忠。 銀昌領兵南下，但前線指揮官如馮國璋、段祺瑞等，嘴上答應實際上拖延不前。北洋派的命令寸步難行。
一邊是攝政王在宮中敲桌子，另一邊是叛軍炮聲越來越近。 這是一場清朝無法勝利的戰爭，同時也是一場沒有人願意為他們真正戰鬥的戰爭。
1911年10月14日，朝廷頒發詔書，任命袁世凱為湖廣總督和南方戰役的總指揮。
袁世凱回覆說他的腳傷還未痊癒，拒絕出席。
他是否真的無法行走？或是在等待更高的報酬？ 一九零八年十一月一日，清穆宗的皇子清懷宗退位，內閣總理大臣清穆宗也一同下台，皇上頒下一道新的詔書。 袁世凱將成為新任的內閣總理大臣，並組建新的政府。從送他回家休養，到超越一個人，且高於十萬人，僅僅不到一個月。為了這一榮譽，他換來什麼？不是他自己的勝利，而是革命者的連場勝利。
不是法庭的信任，而是法庭的恐懼。不是槍炮，而是沒有任何替代方案。這一點，簡單說明就好。
袁世凱的回歸，實際上是清朝政府失控自己的軍隊的結果。
他沒有佔據權力。它是由他的老師交給他的，因為沒有其他人能夠控制這個軍隊。
這是所有之後的基礎：槍口之下就是皇位。然而，袁世凱在肩負著這個重任後，第一件事不是平定叛亂。
這是一個雙方無法理解的命令：圍攻武昌，卻不許攻擊。
為什麼？一個自稱來救朝廷的人，為什麼要拒絕取得勝利呢？
？1911年11月。 北洋軍佔領漢陽，炮火直指武昌。
再推再動，革命暫時的首都就完成了。但袁世凱下令停戰。
圍攻，不要進攻。這一招就像釣魚的人，釣到了魚在嘴唇邊，卻不願收線。
他想要的就是不讓魚死在釣竿上。 他希望魚不能離開這個水域。
這是袁世凱的計算，歷史學家把它稱為餵養敵人以使自己不可或缺。
他握有兩張牌。
在北方，北洋軍是清朝最後的牙齒。
在南方，革命黨人，似乎勝利戰鬥又戰鬥，然而事實上分裂，缺乏糧食，缺乏薪水。
袁不急於幫助任何一方勝利。他希望兩方都無法不依靠他。
對於朝廷，他說革命黨人很強，除了我自己的軍隊外，沒有其他軍隊能夠做到，利用南方的火焰燒毀朝廷的退路。
他對革命黨人說，我可以幫助你迫使清廷退位，但是總統必須是一個有實際能力的人，利用北方的刀子在南方削價。
看看北洋自己。馮國璋想打仗，渴望在一次衝擊中佔領武昌，獲得不朽的榮譽。 段祺瑞接受袁的命令，當袁說停止，他就停止了。一個軍隊，兩種心態，而服從的那一方最後贏得了最大的分數。袁是否真誠地想要救助清廷？若他真心如此，為何不趕往漢陽大捷之後西進？
他要想保住帝制，何必在談判時，悄悄轉移北洋軍的忠心，從大清轉移到公巴元?
答案在他在十二月的行動中，北南和談。十二月一日，上海。
唐紹儀代表北方，吳廷芳代表南方，同坐一桌。談些什麼呢？
退位。共和國。還要如何處理六歲的坐在龍椅上的孩子。但真正的代價並不在那個桌子上。
那是在袁世凱的手中。南方說如果清朝皇帝退位，袁世凱就可以當總統。袁世凱通過唐紹儀，輕輕踢了踢要把皇位逼回紫禁城的球。
給法院：同意，否則我不可能贏得。給革命黨人：妥協，否則我不可能行動。給自己：他們越是僵局，越是不可或缺的我。
這是最根本的問題。所謂的北方南方和平談判其實是一個三方遊戲，袁世凱是唯一一個擁有槍杆和桌子席位的人。法院認為自己已經僱用了他來鎮壓叛亂。
革命者們認為他們已經拉過他站在了自己的陣營裡。
雙方都沒有察覺他其實是兩邊都不是真正的盟友。他做的只是那麼一件事：使自己成為唯一的退路。這是推測，非記錄。
倘若袁世凱真正對清廷忠心不二，僅用一役便平定武昌，歷史便會走向另一條路途，一條長長的南北分裂路線，清廷或許能存活，共和政體或許會遲遲才出現。他沒有選擇那條路途，因為他無法，但也因為他不願。勝利，袁世凱只是個忠心的僕人。
拒絕勝利，讓雙方跪求他，於是他就成為了命運所選擇的男人。 而那兩張桌子，北邊和南邊，仍在計畫，南邊先發制人。
1912年1月1日，孫中山在南京就職為中華民國臨時大總統。 兩千年的帝制制度尚未正式結束，但在那南方城市已經建立了共和國的法律血統了。
他就職的基礎是《臨時政府組織法》草案，前年十二月通過，明文規定該國將採取總統制。
孫中山想要總統職位的理由只有一个：掌握真正的權力，成為最後的決定人。 這個總統制系統是由孫中山為孫中山打造的。
至於為什麼後來改成內閣制，這就是下一集的戲份。 這個單一的變更播下了中華民國第一場憲政鬥爭的種子。突然之間，一個中國變成了兩個對立政權。 南方誕生了一個新生的共和國
由選舉產生的總統。北方仍有一個六歲的皇帝坐在龍椅上，袁世凱手裡握著北洋軍隊。
誰代表中國？槍杆子在袁世凱的手中。法律的合法性在孫中山的手中。
誰也不能吞下對方，誰也不能繞過對方。
南方有個總統。 北方掌握著槍炮。袁世凱所期望的從未是要幫助一方取勝。是要成為兩方都不能迂回的男人。
而就在那一刻，兩枚炸彈飛來了。來自革命派想將他殺死的，以及皇室家族死硬派，已經誓言要為清廷而死鬥的炸彈。
袁世凱認為自己是在玩這場遊戲。 But on this board, someone wanted to flip the table over.
January 16, 1912, outside Donghuamen in Beijing. Yuan's carriage was passing slowly when a condensed milk tin hiding a bomb on the roadside went off.
Not one, but several in a row. Flames, screaming horses, the shouts of his guards, all tangled together.
Yuan's horse bolted. He was thrown from the carriage, rolled in the dirt, and lived. Several guards and passers-by took the blast for him and were killed or wounded on the spot.
Who were the assassins? The northern assassination squad of the Beijing-Tianjin Revolutionary Alliance, a group of young revolutionaries.
They did not trust Yuan Shikai. They feared a republic in name and a dictatorship in fact.
Rather than wait for him to negotiate his way into power, they would remove the greatest obstacle first.
How fate mocks. The men who tried to kill Yuan Shikai were revolutionaries, and the man the revolutionaries failed to kill was the one who would personally carry the Qing to its grave.
The bombs did not change the outcome. They only added a layer of blood to it. Deep inside the Forbidden City, another group was also thinking about bombs, except what they wanted to protect was not a republic, but the dragon throne.
They called themselves the Royalist Party, the Zongshedang. Its core figure, Liangbi, was one of the few Qing nobles who actually understood soldiering and dared to take responsibility. Alongside him were younger royals like Zaize and Puwei.
They hated the peace talks, hated abdication, and hated Yuan Shikai most of all.
In their eyes he was the traitor looting the house while it burned, forcing a widow and an orphan to hand over the country.
So could the Royalist Party stop the abdication? Liangbi was genuinely a hard bone.
He went everywhere, trying to rally Manchu and Mongol nobles and purge the pro-Yuan faction, and he dragged the abdication out again and again. But he forgot one thing. In times like these the most dangerous enemy is often not across from you, but on the side you call
your own, because someone very much wanted him dead. January 26, 1912, Hongluochang, Beijing.
A young man threw a bomb at Liangbi's carriage. That blast scattered the Royalist Party, and blew open the Qing court's last line of defense.
The young man's name was Peng Jiazhen. And behind him lay a silence that no one wanted to break.
Peng Jiazhen's bombing of Liangbi was the strangest blast of the Xinhai year.
It killed the man defending the Qing, and helped the man trying to force the Qing out. January 26, 1912.
Liangbi was returning home. As his carriage reached Hongluochang, Peng Jiazhen stepped forward and threw.
Liangbi's leg was blown off. Three days later, on January 29, he died of his wounds. Peng Jiazhen died on the spot. One bomb bought one nobleman's life, and bought a dynasty's life.
The moment Liangbi died, the Royalist Party collapsed. Men like Zaize and Puwei, who had been shouting defend the Qing to the death the night before, scattered like birds by morning.
What they feared was not the revolution. It was the next bomb, and whether it had their name on it.
This is inference, not record. Had Liangbi lived, the Royalist Party might well have held out several more months.
The abdication edict might have been delayed again and again. The north-south standoff might have sunk into far deeper mud.
His death pulled out the hardest nail for Yuan Shikai. Immediately after, telegrams from Beiyang commanders rained down on the court, one after another. On January 26, Duan Qirui led more than forty officers, some say forty-seven, in a joint telegram to the
cabinet stating flatly that the military situation changes by the minute, and if no decision is made there will be a military remonstrance. Put plainly: if the throne does not step down, the army will offer its advice, and who those rifles would be pointing at needs no explanation.
On February 4, Duan sent a second telegram, this time signed by nine men, in harder language. He would lead the entire army to carry through the republic.
This was no longer advice. It was an ultimatum. The first telegram asked.
The second one pressed. And behind both stood the silent Beiyang army, a hammer ready to fall.
Empress Dowager Longyu held the six-year-old Puyi and wept in the Hall of Heavenly Purity. It was not that she did not want to save her ancestors' throne.
It was that she had no men, no guns, and no money left to save it with. Every general who could fight was either Yuan Shikai's man or already gone. On one side, the crying of a widow and an orphan inside the Forbidden City. On the other, remonstrance telegrams flying into Beiyang headquarters like
snow. This forcing of the throne spilled barely a few drops of blood, and was colder than any blade.
February 12, 1912. The day arrived after all. In the name of the Xuantong emperor, Empress Dowager Longyu promulgated the Edict of Abdication. More than two thousand years of imperial rule ended, formally, on that single sheet of paper. The line in the
edict that later generations have chewed over and over, the ruling power is hereby made public to the whole nation and the state shall be a republican constitutional one, is generally attributed to Zhang Jian as its drafter. That sentence took the
Mandate of Heaven out of the Aisin Gioro family's hands and handed it over, properly and legally, to someone else.
The Articles of Favourable Treatment settled the same day dressed this exit up as a dignified farewell. The emperor's title would not be abolished. Four million yuan a year would be paid, four million taels in the original draft, later changed to
silver dollars. And he might live on in the palace for the time being.
A dynasty ended without rivers of blood, and yet the cold of it is hard to describe.
The brush went down, and two thousand years of imperial rule were over.
Yuan Shikai won the throne by calculation. But this bloodless edict did not end the game of power.
After the abdication, a more hidden war was only beginning. Its battlefield was a sheet of constitutional paper.
The man who picked up the pen and altered that paper was none other than Sun Yatsen, the first to cry republic. And the key figure in it was named Song Jiaoren.
Next episode, the first of the Republic's undercurrents. The Death of Song Jiaoren: The Republic Rewritten.
▶ Watch this episode (images and maps included): A bloodless edict ended two thousand years of empire - and gave the throne to its craftiest player.